Formula 1 is unlikely to slot in any last-minute replacements for the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix if the events are dropped from the 2026 schedule, The Race has learned.

Next month's races at Sakhir and Jeddah are in doubt in the wake of the Middle East conflict that has spread following the United States and Israel launching air strikes against Iran.

No final decision has been made about the matter, with both the FIA and FOM keeping a watching brief on the situation to see how things develop in the Middle East.

FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem has made clear, however, that "safety and wellbeing" will guide any call that is made.

Earlier this week, the FIA announced that the season-opening World Endurance Championship event in Qatar would not go ahead as scheduled on March 28 and would instead be postponed until later in the year.

But while a swift call was made on that event, the situation regarding Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is more complicated because there is no leeway for the events to be moved to later in the year.

F1's schedule is already crammed, so there is no option to reschedule them if they do not take place in their original slots.

This means that any decision made by the FIA and FOM about Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will ultimately be about whether they take place at all in 2026.

It is understood this factor is why F1 does not want to rush a decision before it needs to – as it is not impossible that a ceasefire could be reached to end the conflict before the mid-April races.

However, time is starting to tick for F1's decision because equipment will have to head to Bahrain after the Japanese GP in three weeks' time if the races are to happen, so a call will need to be made within the next fortnight.

There seems to be a growing acceptance in the F1 paddock that unless there is a rapid de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, then the Bahrain and Saudi events will not go ahead because the risks are simply too great.

Amid the doubts, F1 has been evaluating whether or there is any realistic option to replace them, because losing both events would leave a sizeable gap in the calendar.

If neither Bahrain nor Saudi Arabia take place then it would leave a potential hole from the Japanese GP on March 29 to the Miami GP on May 3.

This is why other options have been evaluated - including pulling together last-minute races at Imola and Portimao, or even a possible double-header in Japan after Suzuka.

However, The Race understands that there does not appear to be much appetite within the paddock to rush for a replacement.

The Japanese possibility has fallen away – primarily because it was felt that adding another week away from home for mechanics who will have been on the road since the Australian GP was potentially too much to ask.

In terms of Imola and Portimao, while it would not be impossible to get races sorted in the timeframe available it would be difficult.

Unlike in the COVID era, when F1 moved quickly to get races on to fulfil television contracts, having 22 races in play already means FOM has passed the bar on that front.

So without no need for more races, it is understood that there is no huge desire to spend extra money putting on extra events when there would be little upside because the hosting fees would be unlikely to be great.

From teams' perspective, losing two races from the schedule would mean a drop in income – as they take a share of the year's commercial rights income – but it would not be disastrous.

McLaren CEO Zak Brown said: "It all kind of depends: do the races get replaced, do they get delayed, and the economics around that. But I think, given what's going on, we're not bothered if it does have a little bit of a financial impact."

F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali is due to host his regular meeting with team principals in Australia on Saturday morning, where the topic of the Middle East races is set to be discussed.

But all indications are pointing to a single decision being left on the table about whether the Bahrain/Saudi events go ahead – and if they don't it means no F1 action in April.