Mercedes delivered a monster performance in the first Formula 1 qualifying of this increasingly controversial rules era - but who else overperformed expectation, and whose year is looking a little worrying?

Winner: George Russell (1st)

Once Mercedes finally showed its hand it only ever looked like one of its drivers was going to fully exploit the potential.

A three-tenth advantage over his team-mate? Emphatic. A seven-tenth gap to the best non-Mercedes? The stuff of dreams.

And it could get even better still if the impression basically everyone else in the paddock has about Mercedes' long-run pace turns out to be true. - Jack Cozens

Loser: Max Verstappen (20th)

This weekend has gradually slipped away for Verstappen. He didn’t look like a factor in the best of the rest fight going into qualifying and a strange crash on his first flying lap made sure.

It was by all accounts no operating error, more like a harvesting issue for Red Bull’s new engine. Regardless, the outcome is the same: a long first race of the season awaits the disgruntled four-time world champion from 20th on the grid. - Scott Mitchell-Malm

Winner: Isack Hadjar (3rd)

We've been here before, in recent years, when things occasionally go wrong for Verstappen.

But how often have we been *here* before, in recent years, when things occasionally go wrong for Verstappen and there's someone there to actually pick up the pieces for Red Bull?

With the Mercedes so clearly out of reach, third was the best result available. But that still required beating both McLarens and both Ferraris; it was no mean feat that Hadjar achieved that considering the quality of drivers at those teams, and the fact both have had session-topping performances this weekend.

Best possible result equals the best possible start to his senior team tenure. - JC

Loser: McLaren (5th & 6th)

This was at the lower end of what McLaren would have hoped for - the fourth-fastest of the top four teams, but on the third row of the grid by virtue of Lewis Hamilton’s slight underperformance and Verstappen’s problem.

To be the best part of a second slower than its engine supplier leaves McLaren with a lot of head-scratching. At least Lando Norris pulled a tricky weekend together and ended up right behind team-mate Oscar Piastri. - SMM

Winner: Kimi Antonelli (2nd)

*Probably* an entry that Antonelli's crew deserves more than he does considering the significant repair job pulled off in the space of a couple of hours (and the driver error that had necessitated it).

But Antonelli still had to do his bit by jumping in cold in Q1 and, once back in play, he got the job done. Shame, then, that his side of the garage had its own missteps - as the double investigation that hangs over his second place in qualifying could yet prove costly.

Both sides were a long way from flawless. But both mounted impressive recoveries, too - and the scale of the repair job deserves some recognition. - JC

Loser: Williams (15th & 21st)

We said on Friday that avoiding Q1 elimination would represent Williams overachieving.

So, by our own metric, Williams exceeded expectations by getting Alex Albon through to Q2 - though of course there's the very big caveat a Red Bull fell unexpectedly in Q1, and the competition to beat was a hobbled Aston Martin and the incoming Cadillac cars.

Fact is, the FW48 remains the ninth-fastest car and half a second away from the upper-midfield group on this evidence.

Throw in Carlos Sainz's qualifying no-show and the reliability hex that seems to have infiltrated his side of the garage, and there's precious little in the way of comfort for Williams to cling to right now. - JC

Winner: Racing Bulls (8th & 9th)

In a weekend already "much beyond" the team's expectations in the words of its new arrival, Racing Bulls faced almost no competition on its way to claiming best-of-the-rest status in the first qualifying session of 2026.

Rookie Arvid Lindblad felt the team had "made a massive step" from Bahrain testing by bringing upgrades to Australia, but neither he nor team-mate Liam Lawson expected both of them would make it to Q3.

They did it seamlessly too. Lawson remained a largely anonymous figure throughout the hour-long session but had the consistency to eventually earn eighth on the grid.

And on the other side of the garage, it's been an impressive debut so far for Lindblad, although an untidy Q3 lap may mean an even better result ultimately got away from him.

Nonetheless, still a strong effort from both drivers which may have raised the expectations for a potential double-points finish on Sunday. - Eden Hannigan

Loser: Aston Martin (17th & 22nd)

Fernando Alonso snatched relative respectability from the jaws of embarrassment but this was still a major defeat for Aston Martin and Honda.

Lance Stroll’s car couldn’t even participate in final practice, let alone qualifying, while Alonso was 2.7s off the pace and only beat the two Cadillacs and the drivers who suffered problems in Q1.

The fact Alonso being ‘only’ 2.7s off and one place away from getting into Q2 looked decent in the circumstances tells you everything you need to know about the circumstances. - SMM

Loser: Alpine (14th & 16th)

If anyone wants proof of the old 'pre-season testing times mean nothing' adage, we need to look no further than Alpine.

After testing in Bahrain, we had it down as a potential best-of-the-rest contender. But if that's the real potential...well, Alpine showed none of that in qualifying and never looked like having a shot at making it into Q3.

In fact, it was only a late effort from Franco Colapinto that prevented the embarrassment of a Q1 exit at the hands of the struggling Aston Martin of Fernando Alonso. With Pierre Gasly out of sorts in a car that is "just not reacting as well" as it was in testing, this just ended up as a very mediocre showing for a team that would have been hoping for a lot more.

Alpine can take some solace in the fact that Haas and Audi remain in touching distance but, if this qualifying performance is anything to go by, points from Sunday's race look to be off the table. - EH