Even if it's a very different challenge with the 2026 cars, Formula 1 qualifying at the Belgian Grand Prix remains a fascinating spectacle.

And it was a spectacle that produced a broad mix of winners and losers.

Winner: Kimi Antonelli (1st)

Antonelli has had his share of challenging(-ish) moments this weekend - FP1, Q1, first run of Q3 - but always looked to have plenty of spare capacity to restore himself in his increasingly familiar first place before too long.

The Red Bull tow strategy means this is, on pure performance, an even more imperious pole than the 0.317s gap to Max Verstappen suggests. After an underwhelming run through the downforce-y sector two at his first Q3 attempt, he ran riot in that section the second time by, matter-of-factly telling media afterwards that he simply carried more speed through every corner.

Expect the run to Les Combes tomorrow to be another challenge to overcome, but even if he's second or third coming out of it, Antonelli will remain a monumental favourite to take the chequered flag first. - Valentin Khorounzhiy

Loser: George Russell (4th)

Russell has looked a step behind Antonelli all weekend really. On Friday, Mercedes trackside engineering chief Andrew Shovlin was saying Russell "might have underestimated the grip level" in a few of Spa's corners.

Come Q3 on Saturday that pattern appears to have repeated to an extent, with Antonelli gaining a chunk of time on Russell, particularly through the dog leg after Pouhon and at Stavelot, where the cars are super clipping and running only on the combustion engine. Antonelli appears to have carried superior speed through these corners.

But the straight-line deficit is more stark - particularly along the short stretch from Pouhon to the dog leg, and also again on the run from Stavelot to the final chicane. Russell appears to be spiking his engine's rpm more than Antonelli here, and also through the section after Les Combes.

Russell has recently pointed to a straightline speed deficit on his car, and that does appear to be present, but it's not really there in sector one, only in sectors two and three.

Is this a function of downforce levels/drag or Antonelli's different technique giving him superior deployment at the end of the lap? Or is it simply a case that Russell's power unit is not working as it should?

"Yesterday, I was losing eight tenths in the straights, today I'm losing four tenths," said Russell, who also added: "I don't think it's the power unit, to be honest. 

“We saw this from Silverstone, we thought we found the problem. We thought it was something with the brakes, it wasn't the brakes. Then we thought it was my driving style, with the throttle. I convinced myself that it was something with me, the driving style. 

"Now we're very confident it's not the driving style, and that there's a serious issue at play here. And the team are working so hard to resolve it. Every lap I do and I see I'm down anywhere from two tenths to six tenths, straights, it's pretty infuriating.

"I was pleased with my lap. When I look at the corners, there's a lot of corners that I was faster. There were definitely corners that we needed to improve. The corners look like a normal fight you'd have for a pole. The straights... it's not. I don't know what the solution is. But I'm praying ahead of Budapest [next week's Hungarian GP], we'll find it." - Ben Anderson

Winner: Red Bull (2nd & 10th)

Thanks to the major grid penalty Isack Hadjar has for numerous power unit component changes for Sunday's grand prix, Red Bull (rightly) used him to tow Max Verstappen around in Q3.

The drivers and Red Bull absolutely nailed this - we've seen it mismanaged in F1 many times before - to give Verstappen what he reckoned was an advantage of three tenths, which is the difference between being second instead of sixth.

Fundamentally, like McLaren, there hasn't been a magic bullet that has turned the Red Bull into a victory threat. But the execution on show here shows why this team has been so successful in the past, and Hadjar played the dutiful number two role perfectly as well. - Jack Benyon

Loser: Nico Hulkenberg (14th)

With Hulkenberg's team-mate Gabriel Bortoleto scoring ninth in Q3 while he could only qualify 14th, whether it was his fault or the car's, it was an opportunity missed.

Hulkenberg reckoned it was the latter as he felt an issue earlier in qualifying where his gearshifts weren't syncing up correctly. It was also a messy session by his own admission across the board, as he stopped on track on his way back to the pits.

Even if Bortoleto's pace is encouraging, with the knowledge that Racing Bulls' new upgrade looks like it's pushing that team even further forward at the head of the midfield, this was seemingly a missed chance to pile the pressure on. - JB

Winner: Arvid Lindblad (8th) 

Lindblad hailed his lap at Spa as "definitely our best qualifying of the year” and even after all the highlights he's already had in his short career, it's hard to disagree. 

The Racing Bulls driver posted the fastest first sector on his final flying run, after which he was just a whisker away from outqualifying McLaren's Oscar Piastri. Being self-critical, Lindblad conceded "maybe there was a tiny bit left" after braking a bit early into the final corner, but it was nonetheless still another impressive performance in the bank.  

Lindblad also admitted to "dreaming a little bit" about picking off some of the big hitters despite Racing Bulls not quite being at the level of the top teams just yet. Dreaming or not, being just over a tenth away from a McLaren is still a mega feat for a rookie in their first F1 experience at a track like Spa. - Eden Hannigan

Loser: Esteban Ocon (18th)

This was another heavy qualifying defeat for Ocon against team-mate Ollie Bearman, and again one he attributed to Haas's lingering parts inconsistency issues - which have been acknowledged by the team (with the caveat that it doesn't generally seem to believe they are affecting one side of the garage more than the other).

Ocon said there was both a loss of rear downforce - that had been tackled at Silverstone but returned here - and a deficit on the straights that more than doubled compared to Friday, from "0.2-0.25s" to "0.45-0.5s".

The gap to Bearman was seven tenths in the end. And Ocon insisted the laptime loss in the straights was neither connected to the intended drag level of the set-up nor any deployment difference to Bearman.

"If the car is healthy, we are [still] missing some performance. We want to get closer to the top 10," Ocon said.

"But [first] we are just looking on my side for car consistency, getting the maximum out of the package. We have big inconsistencies from race to race.

"The cars are the same [in spec]. But it's not the same parts, obviously. It's the same config. But one car is 4km/h faster than the other one in the straight line, you know what I mean?" - VK

Winner: Gabriel Bortoleto (9th)

A "we don't give up" mentality was the difference between Q2 and Q3, according to Bortoleto, who was rather downbeat despite finishing inside the top 10 in qualifying.  

Admittedly an unsuspecting competitor in Q3, Bortoleto insisted Audi was missing the top speed, brake temperature and just the general idea of being "put together" to fight at the front.

Whether this is a bizarre way of making his session sound even better or not, he was still one of the standout performers by outqualifying team-mate Hulkenberg and sneaking into ninth in the final part of qualifying. 

Bortoleto's performance has undoubtedly been a boost to Audi's chances of points this weekend. He admitted "it's not going to be easy, but we [will] try" to stay inside the top 10.

If the mentality helps in the same way as it did in qualifying, that should bode well for his chances in the race. - EH

Loser: Ferrari (5th & 6th)

Even without the yellow-flag issue at the last corner, which clearly irked Charles Leclerc, that didn't explain why Ferrari was half a second off Antonelli's pace and behind a Red Bull and a McLaren, respectively - even if Verstappen's time comes with the caveat of the tow he got.

Ferrari hopes it will be competitive in race trim, and Leclerc feels grateful after Ferrari finally solved a power unit issue which had been perplexing the team earlier in the weekend.

Lewis Hamilton felt his rear suspension wasn't quite the same as before his big crash in FP3, and that he did decent laps in qualifying but the balance wasn't quite the same.

All in all, Ferrari will be disappointed, but at least its drivers immediately move up to behind Max Verstappen and George Russell with Norris's penalty, and presumably expect to be able to challenge for a podium on Sunday.

Looking at Kimi Antonelli's form, everything is damage limitation versus him, as things stand. - JB

Loser: Aston Martin (21st & 22nd)

We're accustomed to Aston Martin being at the back of the grid by now, and even the drivers admit their position is "not surprising". But to finish over two seconds away from its nearest rivals surely still has to sting a little? 

Lance Stroll admitted he "didn’t get the perfect tow" he was looking for to gain a few tenths, but no amount of slipstream was ever going to wipe out that gap to the cars ahead.

Alonso was slightly more positive, insisting the team will stick to its "professionalism" despite its difficult situation and that he will try to "nail the start, the strategy, the first lap, driving side, pitstops" as he has done in the grands prix before this one. 

If both drivers can make that work, it will be a relatively positive end to the weekend given the circumstances - with the only missing piece being the speed of the car. Based on the accounts of both drivers, however, they unsurprisingly don't expect to find those extra two seconds in another day's work. - EH